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For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to adopt a strong position concerning Ukraine. After delivering warnings of "serious repercussions" in August if Vladimir Putin persisted blocking peace negotiations, the former president ultimately introduced major sanctions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision seriously hindered Putin's capacity to support his military invasion in the region.

But, with his latest 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, which was developed by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukraine's or EU participation, he has seemingly gone back to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's plan would essentially reward the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Despite bold statements that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", much of the plan effectively compromise that essential independence. What represents a Russian ideal would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate background, the former president seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a mere land disagreement, like ceding Russia a section of Ukraine's territory will appease the leader. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not simply about controlling a destroyed area of economically weakened area in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear desire to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an enticing model for the Russian citizens of the accountable government that Putin's deepening autocracy denies them.

Territorial Giveaways

While maintaining in status the currently divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would require Ukraine to surrender the entire Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been failed to capture in over a decade of fighting, this surrender would make Ukrainian defenses critically undermined.

The area is the place of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the entrenched defensive positions that are a critical obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these positions, leaving Russian forces a clear path to Kyiv in case he eventually decide to restart the conflict.

Military Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would facilitate future conflict easier for the Russian military, Trump would force Ukraine to reduce the numbers of its military from their current large number troops to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, the plan sets no such constraints on the invading army.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's attempts to depict the nation's legitimate administration as Nazis, the plan declares: "Every radical belief system and practices must be rejected and forbidden." Apparently to emphasize this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal sets no condition that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting votes in his own country.

Security Assurances

To be sure, the initiative includes Russia pledge not to "enter other states" and to "establish in legislation its stance of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent agreements in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia committed to honor the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a handback of occupied areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – how should the international community have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external defense commitments. While the proposal promises a "decisive coordinated defense action" if the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong protection assurances", the details vary from fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from stationing military personnel on the nation's land, effectively precluding the security presence, likely headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to prevent Putin from replenishing his reduced troops, re-equipping, and reinvading.

World Concern

A separate parallel deal reportedly would provide Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any subsequent "serious, intentional, and continuous military assault" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a armed reaction. However in contrast to a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary defense against renewed invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of alliance members, including Trump, to react through arms to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not