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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers rising together. In an typical season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a normal season!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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