A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
