Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
